Canada Won't Interfere in Housing Market - For Now: Flaherty

 Louise Egan, Reuters | 28/10/13 | Last Updated: 28/10/13 3:52 PM ET

OTTAWA — The Canadian government has no plans for now to clamp down on the housing market even though prices are rising again, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Monday, but he pledged to investigate whether the price uptick looks to be more than temporary.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says he will not only balance the budget in 2015, but the surplus will be significant.

Speaking to reporters after meeting economists in Ottawa Monday, Flaherty said the surplus that year won’t be “tiny.”

Flaherty said that it would be his department’s responsibility to act on housing prices since the Bank of Canada has “basically no room to move,” but added: “I have no intention of interfering in the market for the time being.”

In its latest report last week, the central bank removed any reference to raising interest rates, saying the economy has too much slack and inflation is too low.

Flaherty, addressing reporters after meeting private-sector economists to get their views, also repeated his pledge to balance the 2015/16 fiscal-year budget, and said he would deliver “not a tiny surplus.”

I want to ensure that this isn’t just a temporary bubble

The minister has intervened in the mortgage market four times since 2008 to cool the housing sector, and had expressed some satisfaction that his moves had worked.

Some of the economists he met on Monday suggested that he have some more conversations with people in the building industry, Flaherty said, “because of what we’re seeing in certain parts of the country, a reacceleration of housing prices.”

One theory put forward for the recent rise in housing prices is that people who perhaps should have been waiting to buy a house have been rushing to purchase to lock in low interest rates.

“But this is speculation and we’re going to have to look into it more, but I have no intention of interfering in the market for the time being,” Flaherty said.

He said the projections of economists he spoke to on Monday  were close to those released by his department in July, forecasting modest but real economic growth over the next few years.

Flaherty said he sees some pressure on government revenues, but added this will be offset by the government’s plans to freeze its operating budget.

Canada’s independent parliamentary budget office said on Monday that by its calculations the government will meet its target of eliminating the deficit in 2015, but subsequent surpluses will likely be smaller than it projected in April.

Flaherty said the parliamentary budget officer did not take into account the government’s planned operating budget freeze.

He has ruled out balancing the budget earlier than 2015, and some economists told reporters that such a move would be unwarranted, given the substantial fiscal drag it would impose.

“It could happen earlier if the minister really wanted it,” said Carlos Leitao, chief economist at Laurentian Bank.

“I don’t think that is desirable, nor do I think it is the government’s plan. So 2015/16 the budget will be balanced, and as the minister said, not only balanced but in surplus territory.”

Bank of Canada cuts Economic Outlook, Drops Rate Hike Signal

BARRIE MCKENNA

OTTAWA — The Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Oct. 23 2013, 10:02 AM EDT

 

The Bank of Canada has abruptly abandoned an explicit warning that its key interest rate is headed higher in the face of a much gloomier economic outlook.

Cautioning that Canada is likely to grow much more slowly than it thought in the summer, the central bank now acknowledges that its next move is just as likely to be a rate cut, as an increase.

The surprise decision Wednesday to drop its so-called tightening bias – in place since April 2012 – coincides with a significant downgrade of the bank’s forecast for GDP growth in Canada.

The bank is cutting its forecast for both the Canadian and U.S. economies – not just for this year, but for 2014 and 2015 as well.

The bank pointed to an economic environment that is now “less favourable for Canada” – most notably, the painfully slow recovery from recession in the United States, Canada’s main trading partner.

“Uncertain global and domestic economic conditions are delaying the pick-up in exports and business investment, leaving the level of economic activity lower than the bank had been expecting,” the Bank of Canada said in a statement.

For the moment, Canada’s export problem is that it is still far too dependent on the U.S., which is grappling with a sluggish recovery and poisoned budget politics in Washington.

The bank left its overnight interest rate unchanged at the one per cent, where it’s now been since September 2010. The bank’s next rate-setting decision is Dec. 4.

Many economists now don’t expect a Bank of Canada rate hike until late 2015, or even 2016.

The Bank of Canada has been anticipating that exports and business investment would pick as the consumer-driven domestic economy cooled, along with the housing market.

But that isn’t happening. Business confidence remains weak and exports are still weak, failing to regain pre-recession levels.

That means the economy isn’t likely to return to “full production capacity” until the end of 2015, according to the bank, or six years after the recession ended. The bank had previously estimated that the so-called output gap would close in mid-2015.

The bank slashed its closely watched forecast of annual GDP growth in Canada to 1.6 per cent this year, down from the 1.8 per cent it forecast in July, and to 2.3 per cent in 2014, down from its earlier forecast of 2.7 per cent. In 2015, it expects growth of 2.6 per cent, versus 2.7 per cent previously.

The bank also said it expects the U.S. economy will grow just 1.5 per cent this year and 2.5 per cent in 2014. That’s down from its earlier forecasts of 1.7 per cent and 3.1 per cent respectively.

Bank of Canada deputy governor Tiff Macklem previewed the GDP downgrade in an Oct. 1 speech in which he highlighted the country’s declining share of global trade.

Dating back to April of last year, former Bank of Canada Mark Carney and his successor Stephen Poloz have insisted the bank would raise the overnight rate to a more normal level “over time.”

That important caveat has now been stricken from the bank’s statement.

“The fact that inflation has been persistently below target means that the downside risks to inflation assume increasing importance,” the bank said Wednesday.

Inflation has been consistently below the bank’s 2 per cent target since early 2012.

Beyond the U.S. and Canada, the economy is generally doing better than expected. In its statement, the bank said the nascent European recovery, “while modest, has surprised to the upside.” And China’s economy is showing “renewed momentum,” the bank said. And the Japanese economy is also doing better.

At home, the bank said consumer spending is holding up better than expected and remains “solid.” The Bank of Canada also continues to expect a “gradual unwinding of household imbalances.”

Many economists have fretted about Canadians’ soaring level of debt to income as low interest rates spurred a long housing price boom in much of the country. Higher mortgage rates could put many homeowners under pressure. But it’s the export sector that really worries the bank.

In its quarterly monetary policy report, also released Wednesday, the bank said the export sector has been “lackluster” in the second and third quarter, with the exception of autos and forest products.

“The recent weakness in exports is indicative of a broader trend of slower-than-expected export growth that began in early 2012,” the bank. It said this is due to “shifts in trade linkages” and ongoing competitive challenges.”

Former CMHC competitor petitions for mortgage insurance fees to drop

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/10/18/former-cmhc-competitor-petitions-for-mortage-insurance-fees-to-drop/

Garry Marr | 18/10/13 | Last Updated: 21/10/13 8:51 AM ET

A former senior executive at one of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s competitors says it’s time for mortgage default insurance premiums to drop because the Crown corporation doesn’t have the same percentage of risky clients due to tighter loan regulations.

Brian Bell, who used to be vice-president of private insurer Canada Guaranty and now runs his own real estate brokerage, is calling for a 15% reduction in fees that can easily top $13,000 on a $500,000 home — a move he says will provide much needed relief to the beleaguered first-time home buyer.

“The risk has been lowered, the mortgage insurance industry has been so profitable and they haven’t done a review in…I can’t remember the last time they reviewed their rates,” said Mr. Bell, who is now president of iPro Realty Ltd. and runs a website called townhouses.ca. He used to work for CMHC where he learned about the mortgage default insurance industry.

By law, any consumer with a downpayment of less than 20% and borrowing from a financial institution regulated by the Bank Act must get mortgage default insurance. CMHC controls about three quarters of the market with Genworth Financial and Canada Guaranty splitting the rest.

All insured mortgages are backed by the federal government, in the case of CMHC for 100% of the value of the loan and 90% for private players. Ultimately the government could be on the hook for close to $1-trillion, a price tag that makes some think there should not be a shrinking of fees.

“They have room to do it,” said Mr. Bell, about lowering fees. “Insurance is all about risk and losses. If you’ve changed your risk and underwriting criteria and made it tighter, you’ll have lower loan losses.”

He points out the Crown corporation has averaged $1.1-billion annually in net income over the last five years and estimates a 15% reduction in fees would have amounted to $194-million in 2013.

“I work with first-time home buyers every day and that’s the group that has been hurt,” said Mr. Bell. “I’m putting my name and reputation on the line after being in the industry for so long. I’m not going to be getting any friendly emails [mortgage insurers].”

Not everybody is convinced it’s time to lower fees.

“To the extent that it assists first-time buyers it is a good thing,” said Jim Murphy, chief executive of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals. But he wouldn’t endorse the petition.

Rob McLister, editor of Canadian Mortgage Trends, said he doesn’t think a petition to lower fees will gain much traction in the marketplace.

“The risk has gone down but the fact is I don’t think [fees] are egregiously priced. I’d rather see them higher than lower and CMHC have a buffer in case things go bad,” said Mr. McLister. “If you don’t like the fees, put 20% down.”

Financial Post

No Bank of Canada rate hike till 2016?

John Shmuel | 08/10/13 | Last Updated: 08/10/13 2:19 PM ET

In the span of a week, two banks have pushed back their forecasts of a Bank of Canada rate hike to 2016.

The latest one comes from Joshua Dennerlein, economist with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Mr. Dennerlein said he now predicts the Bank of Canada will hike its benchmark rate sometime in the first half of 2016, more than a year later from his earlier forecast of a hike in the fourth quarter of 2014.

“We continue to doubt the BoC view that the return to export led growth is right around the corner,” he said. “With domestic sources of growth tapped out, we expect only a limited acceleration in Canada’s growth rate over the next several years.”

Most economists at the moment forecast a late 2014 or early 2015 rate hike, but 2016 is becoming an increasingly discussed target year.

Last week, economists at Scotia bank pushed back their own target to 2016, saying a recent speech by senior deputy governor Tiff Macklem hinted the central bank was disappointed with recent economic trends.

“The Bank of Canada probably now envisages spare capacity remaining into 2016,” Scotiabank said last week, referring to Canada’s actual economic capacity versus the level of production being seen right now.

“Against the conventional thinking that the Bank of Canada would want to hike before spare capacity closes, we continue to think that very easy money will be required even as spare capacity shuts,” Scotiabank added.

Mr. Dennerlein cited that data as well in pushing back his hike forecast. He also downgraded his outlook for Canadian economic growth in 2014, saying he now sees growth of 1.8% versus his earlier 2.2% call.

“We see little upside to the main driver of Canada’s economy – the consumer,” he said. “High household leverage, a low savings rate, and slowing income growth are a recipe for soft consumer spending.”

Mr. Dennerlein said that his previous forecast had assumed a pickup in economic growth in the second half of 2014, but that he no longer sees that occurring.  He also doesn’t expect the output gap to close in Canada until late 2016, keeping downward pressure on inflation.

“The bottom line is that the Bank of Canada is  a long way off from increasing its monetary policy rate,” he said.

Is Mounting Mortgage Debt Putting Our National Economy "At Risk"?

OTTAWA — We have been warned before, and often. The federal government and the Bank of Canada, in particular, have lectured us about the evils of sky-high consumer debt and still-creeping house prices — and the mounting threat to the economy — as rock-bottom interest rates inevitably begin to rise.

Now, municipal leaders are weighing in — and in a big way. They are calling on Ottawa to urgently address the issue of home construction, in general, and what they see as a depleting stock of affordable places to live.

“The federal government has a limited but critical role to play, in partnership with other orders of government, in restoring balance to our housing system,” said Claude Dauphin, the president of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities [FCM], in letter to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

“Federal actions, aligned with provincial, territorial, and local initiatives, can be a catalyst for a stronger and more balanced housing system, which will attract investment and create jobs, support new growth, and increase labour mobility,” Mr. Dauphin said in the Oct. 1 letter.

“As it stands, for those who cannot afford to purchase a home, the short supply of rental units is driving up rental costs and making it hard to house workers in regions experiencing strong economic activity.”

The FCM is making its case ahead of the Conservative government’s Speech from the Throne on Oct. 16. “Housing costs and, as the Bank of Canada notes, household debt, are undermining Canadians personal financial security, while putting our national economy at risk,” said Mr. Dauphin, the mayor of the Montreal borough of Lachine, noting that mortgage debt held by Canadians now stands at $1.1-trillion.

Canada Housing and Mortgage Corp., the Crown agency responsible for insuring mortgages to approved buyers, uses a 30% threshold of total household income going to housing. Anything above that, and consumers could end up over their heads.

Dallas Alderson, director of policy and program at the Canadian Housing and Renewal Association, said one-quarter of Canadian are over that limit. Of those, 40% are renters, while 18.5% own their homes.

“So that’s the situation we have. In the last 15 years, only 10% of housing starts have been for rental, even though 30% of us rent,” she said.

“But a more shocking number is 20% of [private] renters are paying half of their income for their rent, which is incredible because you have very little left over.”

Mr. Dauphin, in an emailed statement to the Financial Post, said municipalities “support the federal government’s commitment to jobs, growth, and Canadians’ financial security.”

“For that reason, we believe that as the government sets its priorities for the next two years, it should address the high-cost of housing in Canada, the most urgent bread-and-butter issue facing Canadians today,” he said.

“We’re not expecting the Speech from the Throne to include specific new policy proposals, but it should recognize the strain housing costs are putting on Canadians, and set the stage for concrete action in at least two areas: protecting and expanding rental housing; and protecting communities from the impact of expiring operating federal housing agreements.”

But Finn Poschmann, vice-president of research at the think-tank C.D. Howe Institute, said Ottawa has “little jurisdiction and almost no practical capacity to deliver housing.”

“Past attempts to do so, through CMHC for example, have produced financial disasters for the people who participated and put CMHC in grave financial situation.” he said.

“We wouldn’t want to see that again, nor the federal mortgage agency deeply underwater and as similar U.S. agencies have been, through the course of much more recent financial disasters.”

Still, those close to the ground see federal involvement as crucial in heading off the very crisis Ottawa has been cautioning Canadians about.

“I think FCM is certainly on the mark to say that housing is really the key piece that may be under threat if all players don’t act to ensure its stability,” said Ms. Alderson.

“In terms of the federal role, there are a variety of incentives that the federal government could put in place to really push the private sector towards the development of more rental housing,” she said.

“Whether that’s an instrument through CMHC or whether that’s an instrument through the taxation system, there are a whole variety of options available to the federal government but none are being utilized right now.”

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/10/07/mounting-mortgage-debt-is-puttingour-national-economy-at-risk-cities-tell-stephen-harper/

 Source: Gordon Isfeld

5 Tips to Help 40-Somethings Save for a Rainy Day

If you're in your 40s, your main financial goals might be paying your children's college bills and funding your retirement accounts. There's another important financial goal you need to meet, too, though -– building an emergency fund.

It's easy to assume that disasters won't strike you, or to simply hope for the best. But disaster do happen to lots of people who are also not expecting them -- things like job loss, an expensive medical crisis, or a major home repair emergency.

An emergency fund will protect you from being wiped out or left in financial dire straits. It should be stocked with at least a few months' worth of living expenses (think food, rent, insurance payments, utilities, gas money, etc.). If you're risk-averse, have dependents, or are in a field where it would take a long time to land a job, you might want to sock away as much as nine months' or a year's worth of living expenses.

Here are some tips to get your fund started and well under way:

1. Establish your fund in a sensible place. A savings account, money market account, or short-term CD is a good idea. Long-term CDs will levy penalties if you need to withdraw funds early, and the stock market can be risky because stocks can plunge over the short term.

That said, though, if you're willing to take on a little risk, you might keep a few months' worth of emergency money in a safe place such as a savings account, and keep the remainder somewhere that will offer a little more growth.

2. Make saving easier through automation. You might, for example, set up automatic withdrawals from your bank account into your emergency account. Your employer might be able to automatically deduct a set sum from your paycheck, too, and plunk it into your emergency fund. The point here is to set it and forget it, since you've likely got a lot of other things going on.

3. Be strategically aggressive in funding your fund. The most obvious strategies, such as getting a second job, can be quite effective. It doesn't have to be forever, but if you spend a year working 10 extra hours a week and netting just $10 an hour, that will amount to $100 a week, or $5,200 a year.

4. Lower some small expenses to free up money to set aside. A money-saving strategy you'll often run across is cutting out or cutting back on costly habits such as jumbo mocha lattes or cigarettes. If you spend just $5 less a day on such items, that will total more than $1,800 by the end of the year.

5. Lower some big expenses to free up money to set aside. There are myriad ways to rein in your large-item spending. Spend a little time shopping around for the best deal on your home insurance and car insurance, and you might surprise yourself by saving hundreds of dollars. Consider canceling or postponing a big expense, such as a fancy vacation or a large-screen TV, until your rainy-day fund is fully funded. And instead of using windfalls like tax refunds to splurge, earmark them for your emergency stash.

Also, remember those budgeting rules you followed in your younger days? Perhaps it's time to revisit them. Take a close look at lots of your expenses, and you may find more ways to save, such as switching to a generic form of a medication, switching from your $40-per-month gym membership to a $10-per-month one, or eating less frequently at restaurants.

We all need to be prepared for a financial disaster. Don't leave your fortune to fate -- protect yourself via an emergency fund.

 

Source: by Selena Maranjian at DailyFinance.com